An Air-conditioning Load Forecasting Based on Dynamical Combined Residual Error Correction
Affiliation of Author(s):
建筑设备科学与工程学院
Journal:
The Open Automation and Control Systems Journal
Key Words:
中文关键字:空调;组合预测;负荷;残差,英文关键字:Air-conditioning, Combination forecasting, Load, R
Abstract:
Accurate air-conditioning load forecasting is the precondition for the optimal control and energy saving operation
of central air-conditioning system. However, the single forecasting method, such as autoregressive integrated moving
average (ARIMA), grey model (GM), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), has not
enough accuracy. In order to improve the accuracy of air-conditioning load forecasting, the combination forecast develops.
But so far there are no literatures that explain how to choose the single forecasting methods to build the combination
forecast that can further improve the forecasting accuracy. To further improve the forecasting accuracy, a forecasting
method with dynamical combined residual error correction is proposed. The residual error correction model and its combination
ways are analyzed, and the very high accuracy with mathematical proof is realized in this paper. A case study indicates
that the dynamical combination ways proposed in this paper can further improve the accuracy of combination
forecasting and satisfy the accuracy requirement of air-conditioning load forecasting.