李晓伟 Likes:

Impact Factor:

5.1

Journal:

Travel Behaviour and Society

Key Words:

Intercity travel modes; Market competition; Bayesian binary logistic model; Elasticity analysis

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to explore the effects of the influencing factors on the intercity travel mode competition and evaluate their dynamic effects across the travel distance. Passengers’ activity data over the whole process of intercity travel were collected for analysis. A Bayesian binary logistic model was developed to identify the significant factors associated with the intercity travel mode competition. An elasticity analysis was applied to quantitatively analyze the dynamic effects of the significant factors on the intercity travel mode competition. The Bayesian binary logistic models results showed that factors such as the travel distance, intercity travel cost, intercity travel time, safety, comfort, punctuality, access time, and departure time have significant impacts on the intercity travel mode competition. Moreover, the elasticity analysis results showed that the elasticity of the factors varies across the travel distance, and each factor has a heterogeneous effect on the travel mode market share across the travel distance. These findings can help in the implementation of more effective management strategies for intercity travel mode planning.

Co-author:

马瑞洋,郭延永,王炜,闫斌,陈君

First Author:

李晓伟

Translation or Not:

no

Date of Publication:

2021-01-01

Included Journals:

SSCI