所属单位：

管理学院

发表刊物：

2011 WASE International Confernce on Information Engineering

关键字：

中文关键字：可靠性分析；马尔科夫链；模特卡罗法；失效率，英文关键字：reliability analysis, Markov chain, Monte Carlo, f

摘要：

The safety of the pipeline in use is tightly linked with the resident life and belongings. Reliable structural integrity and safety of gas pipelines under various service pressure events including defects should be warily evaluated. The reliability evaluation of gas pipelines is necessary to prevent risk and an effective method. In this paper, mechanical reliability of steel tubes conveying gas is analysed, conclusion is drawn that pipeline structure failure depends on the relationship between the pipeline equivalent stress and maximum yield strength.In view of corrosion as main reason lead to system failure, The stresses result from corrosion are analysed. Markov chain Monte Carlo is proposed to analyze the reliability of factors affecting gas pipeline operational condition in consideration of the character of data, the calculating processes of reliability prediction are provided in view of performance degradation characteristics of the factors.This paper takes corrosion as important factors affecting pipeline operation for example, calculates the reliability indexes of gas pipeline, studies the relation of failure rate and length/depth of corrosion pit ,operation time,etc. seeks weak links of system, and brings forward concrete and reliable measures to improve system reliability.

备注：

张志霞

第一作者：

吴迪,张志霞

论文类型：

期刊论文

卷号：

卷：

期号：

期：

页面范围：

页：

是否译文：

否

发表时间：

2011-08-01