所属单位：环境与市政工程学院

发表刊物：Energy

关键字：Energy and atmosphere system, Coal-dependent, Ecologically fragile, Cost-benefit, Management

摘要：This study proposes a novel method titled interval minimax-regret coupled joint-probabilistic costbenefit analysis for the energy and atmosphere system planning of coal-dependent cities located in ecologically fragile areas under multiple uncertainties. The suitability of the model is demonstrated by applying it to Yulin City, China within a 15-year planning horizon (2020e2034). Energy and atmosphere system management schemes have been defined under 63 different scenarios in the model. Results reveal that: (i) both energy supply for the manufacturing industry and pollutant emission would decrease as joint probability level increases; (ii) a higher possibility of violating the total secondary energy output level would lead to a lower energy supply for the manufacturing industry and pollutant emission; (iii) when primary energy output and secondary energy output increase by 5% and 20%, respectively, and production is produced as planned, the system would achieve the lowest cost-benefit ratio ([0.67, 0.80]) and the highest net present value rate ([0.25, 0.48]) from 2020 to 2034. The model supports decision-makers by providing innovative insights into the tradeoffs among system objectivity, reliability, and profitability.

备注：祝颖

合写作者：Wei,Z.,Li,Y.X.,Du,H.X.,Guo,Y

第一作者：祝颖

论文类型：期刊论文

卷号：卷：239

期号：期：B

页面范围：页：122154

是否译文：否

发表时间：2021-01-01

收录刊物：SCI