Data-driven optimal dispatch of a multi-energy virtual power plant under differentiated uncertainty modeling
DOI number:
10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.128791
Key Words:
Multi-energy flow virtual power plant; Stochastic-robust optimization; DDPM-copula; Differentiated uncertainty modeling; Electricity-carbon dual markets
Abstract:
Multi-energy flow virtual power plants (VPPs) face multi-source heterogeneous uncertainties, where different uncertainty sources exhibit significant differences in data availability, statistical characteristics, and operational impacts. However, existing studies generally adopt unified modeling paradigms that fail to adequately match the intrinsic features of different uncertainty sources. To address this, this paper proposes a differentiated uncertainty modeling and coordinated dispatch framework that selects matching characterization approaches based on the features of each uncertainty source. For renewable energy (RE) output uncertainty, which possesses abundant historical data and significant spatiotemporal correlations, stochastic scenarios are generated using a denoising diffusion probabilistic model enhanced with Copula functions (DDPM-Copula). For electricity and carbon price uncertainties, which fluctuate within bounded ranges at the day-ahead timescale, budget uncertainty sets are adopted for characterization. A three-layer stochastic-robust hybrid optimization (SRHO) model is constructed for coordinated dispatch, solved by a hybrid algorithm combining the alternating optimization process with column-and-constraint generation (AOP-C&CG). Case studies on a park-level multi-energy flow VPP yield three main findings. First, compared with unified modeling paradigms, differentiated modeling helps improve the trade-off between economic efficiency and low-carbon performance. Second, scenario spatial correlation fidelity shows a consistent correspondence with downstream dispatch deviation, suggesting that spatiotemporally coupled scenario quality affects dispatch reliability. Third, electricity and carbon price volatility transmits to multi-energy flow equipment output through hydrogen conversion, energy trading, and carbon trading pathways, influencing VPP dispatch and trading strategies in electricity-carbon dual markets.
ISSN No.:
Online ISSN: 1872-9118 Print ISSN: 0306-2619
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