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祝颖

教师姓名:祝颖
教师拼音名称:zhuying
所在单位:环境与市政工程学院
学历:博士研究生
性别:女
联系方式:邮箱 : zhuyingxauat@163.com
学位:博士学位
在职信息:在职
主要任职:国家科技专家库专家
其他任职:环境科学学会会员,系统工程学会会员
毕业院校:华北电力大学
所属院系:环境与市政工程学院
学科:环境工程    
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论文成果
Analysis of extreme random uncertainty in energy and environment systems for coal-dependent city by a Copula-based interval cost-benefit stochastic approach
发布时间:2025-08-22    点击次数:

所属单位:环境与市政工程学院

发表刊物:Sustainability

关键字:extreme random uncertainty; energy and environment systems; coal-dependent; Copula; cost–benefit; planning

摘要:Extreme randomeventswillinterfere with theinversion analysis of energy and environment systems (EES) and make the planning schemes unreliable. A Copula-based interval cost–benefit stochastic programming (CICS) is proposed to deal with extreme random uncertainties. Taking Yulin city as an example, there are nine constraint-violation scenarios and six coal-reduction scenarios are designed. The results disclose that (i) both system cost and pollutant emission would decrease as the industrial energy supply constraint-violation level increases; (ii) when the primary and secondary energy output increases by 9% and 13%, respectively, and industrial coal supply decreases by 40%, the coal-dependent index of the system would be the lowest, and the corresponding system profitability could reach [29.3, 53.0] %; (iii) compared with the traditional chance-constrained programming, Copula-based stochastic programming can reflect more uncertain information and achieve a higher marginal net present value rate. Overall, the CICS-EES model offers a novel approach to gain insight into the tradeoff between system reliability and profitability.

备注:祝颖

合写作者:刘言正,谭纪聪,卫曌,祝颖*,常世玉,李业鑫,李芍毅,郭勇

论文类型:期刊论文

文献类型:J

卷号:16

页面范围:745

是否译文:

发表时间:2024-01-01

收录刊物:SCI